The Chip Witch Blog

16.06.2025 at 03:13:12 UTC

Type	Jun 16	Jun 17	Jun 18
Active	35%	40%	25%
Minor	35%	20%	15%
Moderate	10%	10%	5%
Strong	1%	1%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	3.33	4.00	2.67
03-06UT	2.67	3.67	2.00
06-09UT	2.33	3.33	2.33
09-12UT	2.00	3.00	2.33
12-15UT	2.00	2.33	2.33
15-18UT	3.00	2.33	2.33
18-21UT	3.67	2.00	2.33
21-00UT	4.67	3.00	2.67
Solar Activity
Solar activity reached high levels due to multiple M-class flares. Region 4105 (S14W84, Dso/beta) produced an M2.2/1n flare at 15/0756 UTC with an associated Type II (450 km/s) radio sweep and a CME off the W limb at 15/0812 UTC. Subsequent modelling showed no Earth-directed component. Region 4105 also produced an M1.9/Sf at 15/1047 UTC. Region 4114 (N17E12, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M8.4 flare at 15/1807 UTC, the largest of the period. Associated with the flare were multi-frequency radio bursts, Castelli U signature, an 1800 sfu Tenflare, Type II (397 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, and a CME off the N limb at 15/1824 UTC. CME analyses suggests the bulk of the CME will pass north of the ecliptic, however, it is possible that well see shock passage on 18 Jun.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged from 5-8 nT while the Bz component was between +7/-6 nT. Solar wind speed was elevated between 454-596 km/s. Phi angle was mostly positive.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.