The Chip Witch Blog

14.06.2025 at 12:33:38 UTC

Type	Jun 14	Jun 15	Jun 16
Active	5%	30%	30%
Minor	35%	40%	40%
Moderate	35%	15%	10%
Strong	25%	1%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	4.67	5.00	4.67
03-06UT	5.33	4.33	4.00
06-09UT	5.67	3.67	3.33
09-12UT	4.33	3.33	3.00
12-15UT	3.33	2.67	3.00
15-18UT	4.67	3.00	2.33
18-21UT	5.00	3.00	2.33
21-00UT	6.00	4.00	3.00
Solar Activity
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4105 (S15W64, Eki/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M1.2/1f flare at 13/2110 UTC; the strongest event of the period. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4110 (N06W51, Dsi/beta) and 4114 (N17E33, Dai/beta). Slight decay and consolidation was observed in Region 4105. New Region 4116 (S12E32, Dao/beta) was numbered. The remaining regions were mostly stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent CME effects that transitioned to CIR effects later in the period. Total field ranged from 4-18 nT and the Bz component was negative throughout a majority of the period, reaching a maximum of -14 nT. Solar wind speed was in the 373-536 km/s range. Phi angle was mostly negative through 13/2221 UTC when phi changed to a positive orientation.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels with an isolated measurement above high levels. The peak flux was a single reading of 1,230 pfu observed at 13/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.