The Chip Witch Blog

04.07.2025 at 20:19:34 UTC

Type	Jul 4	Jul 5	Jul 6
Active	35%	25%	15%
Minor	25%	5%	5%
Moderate	5%	1%	1%
Strong	1%	1%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	2.67	3.00	2.33
03-06UT	4.00	2.67	2.67
06-09UT	3.00	2.33	2.00
09-12UT	2.67	2.00	2.00
12-15UT	1.67	2.33	2.00
15-18UT	1.67	2.33	2.33
18-21UT	2.00	2.33	2.00
21-00UT	2.67	2.67	2.33
Solar Activity
Solar activity was at low levels with C-class flare activity observed. Region 4129 (N02W09, Dai/beta) increased in size and spot count and Region 4130 (S10E24, Bxo/beta) reemerged with spots this period. Region 4127 (S19W26, Dao/beta), the largest on the disk, began to show signs of decay. The remaining five active regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME influences during the period. The total magnetic field strength steadily decreased from a peak of 14 nT to approximately 8 nT. The Bz component briefly reached -13 nT early in the period, followed by a predominately northward orientation between 03/1230-1700 UTC. A sustained southward Bz was observed between 03/1730-04/0430 UTC, reaching as low as -9 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually declined from ~405 km/s to around 350 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle remained negative throughout the period.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,220 pfu observed at 03/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.