The Chip Witch Blog

15.06.2025 at 03:31:57 UTC

Type	Jun 15	Jun 16	Jun 17
Active	35%	30%	40%
Minor	35%	40%	20%
Moderate	15%	20%	10%
Strong	1%	1%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	4.00	4.00	4.00
03-06UT	4.67	3.00	3.67
06-09UT	3.00	3.00	3.33
09-12UT	3.00	2.67	3.00
12-15UT	3.33	2.33	2.33
15-18UT	2.00	3.33	2.33
18-21UT	2.00	4.67	2.00
21-00UT	3.00	4.67	3.00
Solar Activity
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4105 (S15W71, Eki/beta) produced an M6.8/1n flare at 14/2301 UTC, and an M1.0/Sf flare at 14/1804 UTC. Moderate growth occurred in Region 4114 (N17E26, Dki/beta-gamma) while Region 4105 had new flux emergence north of its leader spots. Slight growth and flux emergence also occurred in Region 4110 (N06W58, Eai/beta). Slight growth and development occurred in Region 4116 (S12E26, Dao/beta).
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a transition to a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 430 km/s to between 480-535 km/s. Total field decreased from 17 nT to near 7 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.